With today being Super Bowl Sunday, I couldn't help but think about how A.I. might be involved with the betting. We have seen artificial intelligence as a player in games such as chess, Connect 4 and our penguin game from class. What about artificial intelligence as an observer that predicts the outcome of a game? This is all made possible through the availability of competitor statistics and what is called swarm intelligence.
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Some areas where A.I. is making an impact in the betting world is in football, soccer and horse racing. You can read more on the betting and swarm intelligence here:
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/ai-swarm-intelligence-and-the-future-of-sports-betting/
One company that is involved in sports betting, Unanimous A.I., correctly predicted a superfecta in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. A superfecta is when you pick the top four finishers in a race in the correct sequence. Couldn't just be completely luck, right? Currently, Unanimous A.I. has made some predictions for Super Bowl LII today, which can be viewed here:
http://unanimous.ai/super-bowl-52/.
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Example of prediction interface of Jaguars vs Patriots on 1/21
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Another company, Stratagem, is focusing on soccer, basketball and tennis. You can read more about Stratagem here:
http://www.stratagem.co/about/. These companies still utilize human resources to help with gathering data--with most of the difficult analysis being done through deep neural networks.
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This leads us to the question of how will artificial intelligence impact the future of betting and what role will it play in predicting the outcome of events? I think we still have time before the betting world becomes fully automated. Right now these technologies are giving an edge to those who utilize them. Will betting institutions prohibit the use of technology like this? In what ways could they even know you are using A.I. to place your bets? Lots of people make a living off betting, and I wonder what sort of impact these predictive models will have on that area.
Personally, I believe that there will still be time before the world becomes fully automated. I think that society will grow to try to utilize betting technologies more and more over time. I also feel that institutions will most like prohibit that kind of use of technology.
ReplyDeleteThe Swarm AI had "high confidence" that New England would win. Instead, the Eagles won. (But it was close). Point being -- in the end, a bet is a just a bet... you win some and you lose some.
ReplyDeleteP.S. Eagles are birds. Any decent A.I. should have known to predict that the birds would win... :-)
DeleteCounter argument: If you pit a flock of eagles against red-blooded american men with muskets, I would probably still put my money on the patriots. If not for their apparent disdain for endangered species alone. Also, this begs the question that if the AI could accurately predict the winner every time, what is the point of betting? Or even playing? The joys of these games are based off of the hope and uncertainty of victory. If you lose that, its a slippery slope to losing the game altogether. Like when we spoke in class about giving all football players cyborg implants to make them stronger and faster. The game loses its integrity, and becomes about who has more money.
ReplyDeleteI agree that if AI was able to correctly predict every game correctly there would be no more sports betting or sports since the outcome is already certain. Which is why it is completely impossible to predict the outcome of games of somewhat equal competition since there are so many variables that go into winning like the teams game plan, energy level and just plain luck. That is why trying to predict the march madness perfect tournament bracket is so popular since the outcome is so uncertain and the chances of getting a perfect bracket are very very slim.
ReplyDeleteI think that this would become widespread because people would see the computer as an authority in the context of the bet. I feel like most people would just believe that there's math and smart computers behind their bet and therefore trust it to make them money. That being said, I have no idea how the culture around sports works. It seems like those taking bets would try to regulate the use of AI in the process, but I can't see how you could successfully do that. Sure, you can stop me from looking at my phone while placing my bet if I do it in person, but what's to stop me from checking before going to place my bet?
ReplyDeleteI also wonder if this AI prediction would be integrated into fantasy football (Madden: The Gathering, if you will). I have no idea how fantasy football works, but I know it exists, and I wonder if there's an application there.
I has the same question after reading this! Thinking of AI in sports makes me wonder about AI in fantasy football (love the nickname). So, I googled it and I found this wonderful, detailed article:
Deletehttps://developer.ibm.com/dwblog/2017/espn-fantasy-football-watson-ai-playoffs/
Read through the website if you are interested(It also briefly explains how fantasy football works)!
I think that if I were to attempt to play fantasy football, I would trust the Watson AI prediction. Of course I would choose the AI's prediction over my own ill-informed guesses, but I would most likely choose it over other human experts in the field. In the article I linked above, the author considered the AI's predictions during his fantasy football season and ended up winning his league.
I think that this tech will also become widespread, but betting on the teams that the AI does not predict will become all the more extreme a form of gambling, for if they win, not only will the collective human and AI hive mind be wrong, but the winnings from the overwhelming odds would be enormous. I can see this tech being used, but it may also have it's repercussions.
DeleteI think that no matter how good the AI is, it still trying to predict human ability and activity, which is sometimes irrational. For a rational AI (assumption because it is a machine) to predict irrational behavior, it will never reach 100% certainty. Of course it might be pretty close, which in turn ruin the betting and the sport for everyone. I don't know much about betting, but I think if everyone follow the AI, then they would not win much money out of it anyway.
ReplyDeleteWhat happens to the voices of "the little guys" when the swarm turns out to have made the wrong prediction? do they get more of a say in things? I think it's interesting that there is no backbone for the predictors that aren't with the 'swarm' in the AI, it reminds me of the popular vote/electoral college structure.
ReplyDeleteNo matter how good AI is, humans are unpredictable and there so many external factors that can influence the game that the AI cannot predict. At the end, a bet is still a bet, and there is no guarantee an AI will always get it right. However, I think that if AI becomes a big part of betting, companies will start prohibiting the use of it of course, because they would not want people winning bet that much.
ReplyDeleteI agree that human unpredictability is certainly the biggest reason why these predictions will never be fully accurate. But I don't think companies will prohibit the use of AI, instead I think they'll make making bets for and against the AI's predictions a thing. I don't know how betting works but maybe if an AI is very accurate, companies will use it to lure more people in and when they start betting big, change the algorithm to decrease accuracy and make a lot of money.
DeleteOutside of sports, the way a betting market is split can potentially influence outcomes to be in the betters favor. In elections the better will vote the way that will make them money despite the probability they'll win their money back. In sports it's possible that knowing people are betting on you is enough to change a team's attitude.
ReplyDeleteI think there's good potential that betting on stats-based things will either change drastically or disappear completely when AI becomes mainstream. As Zineb said, humans are unpredictable, but this isn't always the case. Betting works in the way that betting on the underdog pays out much more money if they win; if the AI picks correct winners most of the time, then is it still worth it to bet on the underdog for that small percentage of the time when they pull through? Almost seems like you're losing money with those chances... but we're kinda doing that anyway as it is.
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